Can we end the age of scarcity?

I wrote a two part series for the renowned technology forecasting think-tank RethinkX looking into the danger of mineral scarcity and net energy decline derailing the renewable transition. These articles bring together the scientific research into a big picture analysis that tells the real story, one that’s often being drowned out in today’s news cycle and polarised debates. The upshot is not only that there are no good reasons to believe that mineral scarcity will necessarily stall the transition, but further that this is not just a transition - but a total transformation. You can read part one here, and part two here. These formed the basis of my new Club of Rome paper published in 2022 as a member of its Transformational Economics Commission.

My new paper sets out a clear vision of what the clean energy transformation really entails, and how it can actually create more, not less, energy than the existing fossil fuel system. This is, in short, a completely new system. I’m particularly chuffed at having worked with the Club of Rome on this given that they produced the seminal 1970s MIT study warning of 'limits to growth’. It’s not such ‘limits’ don’t exist - they very much do. But these limits are limited precisely to the incumbent system, and don’t apply to the dynamics of the new one. This paper sets out the science, data and principles for why we know this to be the case.