New directions from Byline to RethinkX to the System Shift Lab

It’s 2024. While I haven’t used this space to post much in the way of updates that’s because I’m doing more than I’ve ever done before. I try to use this blog to highlight key milestones in my work - but things have moved at such intensity, I’ve barely had a moment to pause to do that. So I’m grateful that in early 2024, I’m finding myself with a bit of space to fill in those gaps. I’ve moved from focusing on deep, complex investigations, into something even more rewarding - applying my understanding of complex systems at every level to how we can rapidly transform our civilisation within decades.

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Can we end the age of scarcity?

It’s often believed that the clean energy disruption could be fundamentally constrained by resource scarcity in the form of insurmountable raw materials and mineral bottlenecks. Writing for the technology forecasting think-tank RethinkX, I address some of the most notable perspectives that uphold this mythology, and show that if societies make the right choices – and that’s a big ‘if’ – the clean energy disruption can represent a fundamental break with historical patterns of scarcity, and a breakthrough into a new age of energy abundance.

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Nafeez AhmedComment
Complexity in the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Simplistic, binary thinking is unhelpful in addressing some of our most protracted crises. I’ve long been a critic of Israeli policies in the Occupied Territories, in much the same way that I’ve been critical of many states and governments around the world responsible for repression and human rights violations. But one thing that has increasingly alarmed me is the extent to which erstwhile critics of Israel repeatedly fall into antisemitic tropes in their eagerness to vindicate the Palestinian cause.

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Nafeez AhmedComment
COVID-19: systems reporting on the global pandemic

I have been reporting vociforously on the global pandemic from multiple angles. On the one hand, I started by attempting to ensure I was providing a big systems lens to help people understand how this happened, what it really means, and where it suggests we’re going.

My first major piece situated the pandemic in the context of a number of systems frameworks, setting out the potential risks of societal and institutional crisis (aka synchronous failure), as well as arguing that it signals the acceleration of a ‘global phase shift’.

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Nafeez AhmedComment
Deforestation is driving 90% chance of collapse in decades - global coverage

Writing on VICE, I broke the story of a new scientific study by two top theoretical physicists modelling the implications of prevailing rates of deforestation. The model found an over 90% chance of societies collapsing in the next two to four decades if deforestation continues. My story generated major global coverage in Futurism, International Business Times, Daily Mail, The Sun, New York Post, EcoWatch, among others.

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Nafeez AhmedComment
Scientists warning on Super-Rich: making science go viral

I reported exclusively on a major new paper in Nature Communications demonstrating that that the concentration of wealth is destroying the very conditions for human survival. The new paper by a team of economists titled, ‘Scientists warning on affluence’ at first did not generate much pick-up - until I picked it up via my own crowdfunded platform, INSURGE INTELLIGENCE, bringing it over 100,000 downloads.

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A global story on the risk of civilizational collapse after 2050

In July 2019, I broke an exclusive story via my ‘system shift’ column at VICE, covering a new report which warned that from 2050, global civilization could face the risk of collapse due to the impact of climate change. What made the report especially interesting was that it had been endorsed by a former top Australian military chief. The story went viral and global, reaching up to a hundred million people.

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Nafeez AhmedComment
Breaking the story of a report to the UN on obstacles to economic growth

In August, I broke the exclusive story of a scientific report commissioned by the UN’s group of independent science advisors working on the UN’s Global Sustainability Report due out next year, a report warning of how the transition to a new era of expensive energy production is undermining the very basis of capitalism as we know it, and endless economic growth in particular.

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Recognition and endorsement of my investigative journalism in British Journalism Review

I'm pleasantly surprised to be able to announce that the highly respected UK news industry SAGE journal, British Journalism Review, published a research article in March 2018 by renowned journalist Peter Oborne, in which he provides a resounding endorsement and recommendation of my investigative journalism. The BJR article describes me as "one of the most courageous and interesting investigative reporters of our time."

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INSURGE Cambridge Analytica reporting picked up by HuffPost and beyond

HuffPost have credited us for being first to report this story on how Cambridge Analytica advised the UK Foreign Office on how to apply data lessons learned from gaming the US presidential elections to UK foreign policy goals. 

I first unearthed this in December 2017, in an extensive piece which contained numerous other revelations that the global press are only now beginning to catch up on.

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Nafeez AhmedComment
The Great Unravelling

This month I was cited in two interesting mainstream pieces that I'd like to highlight. 

A major feature article which ran in The Independent on Sunday cited my work on US covert operations fostering sectarian divisions in the Middle East. That piece by Youssef El-Gingihy is well worth reading simply for its compelling analysis of the interlocking geopolitical factors pushing the world to the brink of another major conventional war. The mention of my work makes up only a small element of the piece, which offers a valuable analysis of the mounting risks in this new age of uncertainty.

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Seeing into and beyond our Trumpian moment

So I've got a lot of journalism covering our Trumpian moment from multiple angles. This body of work isn't the type of stuff you're going to find anywhere elsewhere in the MSM or even the alternative press - it's in-depth, it's interdisciplinary, and it'll demand you to take a breather from the crazy video clips, to reflect, to think things through. But if you work through this material, I promise you, you will come away with a richer, deeper understanding of how the Trumpian moment has arisen; you'll have resources to formulate what you can/must do to act in response to this present moment.

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BOOK ANNOUNCEMENT: Failing States, Collapsing Systems - BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence

My new book which has just been published by the global science publisher, Springer, is called, Failing States, Collapsing Systems: BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence (2017). 

Published as part of the SpringerBriefs in Energy series, the book is a peer-reviewed scientific monograph on how state failures around the world are being driven by systemic crises driven by interconnected climate, energy, food and economic crises. The series editor is Prof Charles Hall, the founder of the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI) which measures the efficiency of an energy system by calculating the quantity of energy used to extract new energy from a particular resource.

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Interview with Al Jazeera Inside Story on Chilcot Report

Following my coverage of the insights and obfuscations of the Iraq inquiry report produced under the purview of Sir John Chilcot - who previously distinguished himself on the Butler inquiry that whitewashed the fiasco on fabricated intelligence on Saddam's WMD - I was called onto Al Jazeera's Inside Story to participate in an extended expert panel interview about the Chilcot report.

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Exclusive interview with The Guardian on how to survive a global collapse

I did this exclusive interview for a feature article inspired by Ubisoft's new console game, Tom Clancy's The Division, with The Guardian. My interviewer, Guardian games and tech editor Keith Stuart, did a fantastic job of covering serious risks with funny, yet probing, questions.It's a tongue-in-cheek conversation, but it does cover some real issues. 

The most important of which is that if you want to survive the apocalypse (any apocalypse), remember, you have to share the baked beans - not hoard them all for yourself. Yes, really.

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9/11, conspiracy theory, and bullshit mongers

I get trolled a lot these days by people with all sorts of ideological beef. It gets old, fast.

9/11 and 7/7 conspiracy theorists who believe that governments "did" 9/11 and 7/7 criticise me for being too "establishment". On Twitter, arch 9/11 conspiracy wing nut accounts identified as Phil Greaves and Charles Frith have routinely called me a "shill" and a "stooge" of government. 

Ironically, right-wing pundits dislike my work on outfits like Quilliam and the Henry Jackson Society, etc. and call me a "conspiracy theorist." 

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But, but, bin Laden died in 2001, didn't he??!

Last month, I broke an exclusive in-depth investigation into the real story behind the bin Laden raid, based entirely on open sources available in the public record, including some pioneering journalistic investigations by others, official records, and declassified documents. 

My piece concluded that both the official history of the bin Laden raid and events leading up to it, as well as the alternative story put out by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh, were flawed.

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